Ben Highton, Washington Post: If the 2016 presidential vote is evenly split between the parties, which one is more likely to win the Electoral College and therefore the presidency? I estimate that the DemocratsÂ’ chances of winning the Electoral College vote are between 83 and 89 percent, giving them a significant advantage. ... The distribution of Electoral votes for 10,000 sets simulations is shown below. Across the simulations the Democrats receive a majority of the Electoral votes 89 percent of the time. Even if the trends across the states slow to -- on average -- half their current rates, things still look very good for the Democrats. Under this scenario, the probability of the Democrats winning the Electoral vote is 83 percent.
Comments
Post a Comment